
The last 6 months have been really exciting in the mobile ecosystem field, and the next 12 month will be, in my opinion, totally changing the landscape as we know it.
First of all, phones are getting way better from a hardware point of vue, which mean that even entry-level phones start having really powerful processors and screens are also improving. This is a major organic trend leveraging on natural chipset and components cost reductions.
Along with that hardware evolution, usage of the mobile phone is getting much more mature and now goes beyond voice calls and texting. While using a mobile as a game device has been fast to be accepted, accessign the Internet from one’s mobile does not sound like a crazy nerd idea anymore, and this is mostly thanks to Apple’s strong worldwide Ad presence. Mails and mobile web are now seen as something useful ready to reach the masses.
Thus here comes my first prediction : Even entry level phones (at 1€ with a new contract) will start offering smartphone-like functions such as decent web browsing and emails. Also they will allow high-quality dedicated apps installation as a “first-screen” feature (and not buried in the Application/Java/XXX tree of your phone menu).
The second prediction will have to do with the OSes. Android has finally made its way to a first phone actually on the market since September 2008. Blackberry OS has matured into something more appealing then it ever was. Apple Iphone’s OS is a reference in terms of user interaction and homogeneity, and has defined a new standard for application deliveries through its marketplace. Symbian remains strong and bound to Nokia.
My second prediction is that : Android will enable newcomers in the Phone manufacturing segment to deliver high-quality low-cost hardware and rely on Android for the software thus changing the current balance of power between current vendors and skilled taiwanese/Chinese ODMs. 2009 will see at least ten Android phones coming from totally unknown vendors (at least from the mass market).
My third prediction is that : Windows mobile market share is going to crunch (unless Microsoft really manages to deliver a fast and reactive OS that does not have to live with its history of an early days as a pen-based PDA OS).
My fourth prediction is that : Each OS will bind strongly with one mass market work environment, just as iPhone is bound to iTunes/Mac, Android is bound to google, Windows Mobile to Windows, Blackberry and Symbian will have to take sides and offer out-of-the-box best-in-class support of at least one work environment – and Yahoo! will have to be one of those.